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HIR's FIRST PRINCIPLES
ARGUMENT A.
Premise 1. The way to do better geopolitics is to
have a more accurate representation of the intentions and capabilities of
other players in the international system.
Premise 2. The Government of the United States,
the most important geopolitical player, has the strongest motivation to
do better geopolitics.
Therefore: The Government of the United States
works very hard to obtain a better understanding of the intentions and
capabilities of other players in the international system.
Fact: CIA director George Tenet said in the
year 1998 that the budget on that year had been a little under 27
billion. Recently, a US Intelligence official said in a press conference
that the yearly budget was now 44 billion. But the truth is that nobody
knows for sure, because the
budget for US Intelligence is a state secret.
Hypothesis: The Government of the United States has
very good information—definitely better than my own—on which to base its
geopolitical decisions.
ARGUMENT B.
Premise 1. The Government of the United States,
for many years running, has been the most powerful in the world.
Premise 2. Idiots don’t become the most powerful
people in the world.
Therefore: The Government of the United States is
not run by idiots.
Hypothesis: If the Government of the United States
behaves in ways that seem idiotic to me, then a) there is something I
don’t yet understand; or b) this
government has different values than my own. Or both. (And I have yet
to accept this, which is why I think the behavior is idiotic.)
ARGUMENT C.
Premise 1. The true preferences of someone are
revealed in his/her expensive behaviors.
Premise 2. Saying “My intentions are X” is not
expensive but cheap.
Therefore: Speech acts (e.g. public and official
declarations) don’t necessarily convey information about the true
intentions of a government.
Hypothesis: If the Government of the United States
consistently, year after year, spends billions of dollars and achieves
always similar results, and if these results contradict the government’s
publicly declared intentions, the publicly declared intentions must be deliberate
deceptions.
These
three hypotheses are the motivation for most of the research you
will find in this website.
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